THE REFS BET
The refs bet. We keep score.

The Whistle

Trades whose timing was statistically unusual for that security — and which also sat against committee work the member was part of, a vote they cast, or a shutdown or lame-duck window.

What "unusual" means here, exactly. For each trade we ask a testable question: if this member had traded this same security on a random day instead, how often would they have done at least this well against the market over the next 90 trading days? Two hundred random dates are drawn from that security's own price history. The p-value is the share of them that did as well or better. A p-value of 0.02 means only 2% of random timings in that stock beat this one.

What it does not mean. It is not a probability of guilt, or of innocence. It does not measure intent, knowledge, or wrongdoing. Someone has to be in the top few percent — across tens of thousands of trades, unusual things happen constantly by chance alone. That is precisely why an unusual p-value on its own is not flagged here: a Whistle also requires a documented connection, and a size floor of $15,000 so token amounts do not generate noise.

Across 29,227 trades tested, 2,361 (8.1%) were unusual at the 0.05 level. Chance alone produces about 5%. The gap between those two numbers is the whole finding — and it is modest.

The published rules

RuleWhat it requiresFlags
huddle_timing Unusually timed trade inside a committee window, p ≤ 0.05, at least $15,000 75
window_timing Unusually timed trade during a shutdown or lame-duck window, p ≤ 0.05, at least $15,000 48

Every threshold is fixed and published — nothing here is tuned per member or per trade. The full definitions are on Methodology.

Reset

48 flagged trades.

p-valueTrade dateMemberTickerAction Amount (as filed)Excess vs marketRuleRecords
0.000 2020-11-12 Greg Gianforte R-MT IWN buy $500,001 – $1,000,000 +26.5% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2026-03-16 Kevin Hern R-OK ACN
Business Services
sell $250,001 – $500,000 +36.6% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-10-07 Tommy Tuberville R-AL ORCL
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +48.0% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-10-07 Tommy Tuberville R-AL MSFT
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +26.5% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-10-31 Tim Moore R-NC VZ
Telecommunications
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +34.2% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-10-28 Kevin Hern R-OK MSFT
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +23.7% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-10-30 Lisa C. McClain R-MI MSFT
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +21.5% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-10-31 Lisa C. McClain R-MI MSFT
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +20.7% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-11-05 Tim Moore R-NC VZ
Telecommunications
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +29.2% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-11-12 Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. D-CA CP
Transportation
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +13.9% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2026-03-12 Tim Moore R-NC HOG
Industrials
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +42.1% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2020-11-09 Alan S. Lowenthal D-CA IWN buy $15,001 – $50,000 +28.9% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2019-01-25 Katherine M. Clark D-MA KHC
Food & Beverage
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +44.4% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2025-10-29 Shelley Moore Capito R-WV MSFT
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +23.6% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.000 2026-03-13 Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. D-CA IBM
Technology Hardware
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +27.5% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2026-02-03 Cleo Fields D-LA AMD
Semiconductors
buy $50,001 – $100,000 +103.4% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2025-10-28 Kevin Hern R-OK BSX
Medical Devices
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +29.6% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2020-12-22 Virginia Foxx R-NC OLP
Investment Funds
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +19.4% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2020-11-30 K. Michael Conaway R-TX AAL
Transportation
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +47.6% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2020-11-17 Mark E. Green R-TN USDP buy $15,001 – $50,000 +65.7% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2020-11-24 Mark E. Green R-TN USDP buy $15,001 – $50,000 +52.8% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2018-12-20 David B. McKinley R-WV ROP
Medical Devices
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +17.5% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2022-11-30 Dan Sullivan R-AK RPM
Chemicals
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +21.1% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2020-11-04 Pat Roberts R-KS COST
Retail & Consumer
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +26.2% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.005 2026-02-18 Rick W. Allen R-GA INTU
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +40.0% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.010 2026-02-03 Cleo Fields D-LA MU
Semiconductors
buy $100,001 – $250,000 +126.3% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 100 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.010 2020-11-09 Mark E. Green R-TN USAC
Utilities
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +40.0% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 100 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.010 2022-11-30 Dan Sullivan R-AK RPM
Chemicals
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +21.1% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 100 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.015 2025-10-07 Tim Moore R-NC VZ
Telecommunications
buy $50,001 – $100,000 +20.0% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 67 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.015 2025-10-10 Tim Moore R-NC VZ
Telecommunications
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +19.9% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 67 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.015 2020-11-04 Pat Roberts R-KS COST
Retail & Consumer
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +26.2% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 67 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.015 2025-10-16 Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. D-CA GDDY
Software & IT Services
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +37.3% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 67 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.015 2025-10-10 Cleo Fields D-LA GOOGL
Software & IT Services
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +27.3% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 67 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.020 2018-12-12 Josh Gottheimer D-NJ FB sell $15,001 – $50,000 +5.8% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 50 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.020 2020-11-09 Mark E. Green R-TN ET
Utilities
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +36.4% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 50 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.020 2020-11-06 Brian J. Mast R-FL TLRY
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +151.2% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 50 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.030 2025-10-10 Cleo Fields D-LA GOOG
Software & IT Services
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +26.8% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 33 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.035 2018-12-18 Bradley Scott Schneider D-IL TTWO
Software & IT Services
sell $100,001 – $250,000 +22.8% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 29 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.035 2020-11-09 Mark E. Green R-TN AM
Utilities
buy $50,001 – $100,000 +37.9% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 29 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.035 2020-11-13 Greg Gianforte R-MT BCS
Banking
buy $50,001 – $100,000 +31.7% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 29 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.035 2025-10-14 Scott Franklin R-FL UNP
Transportation
buy $50,001 – $100,000 +14.0% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 29 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.040 2025-10-29 Shelley Moore Capito R-WV IBM
Technology Hardware
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +17.0% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 25 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.040 2024-12-12 Rick W. Allen R-GA ROL
Business Services
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +22.1% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 25 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.045 2022-11-14 Carol D. Miller R-WV EFA buy $50,001 – $100,000 +6.5% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 22 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.045 2020-11-17 Mark E. Green R-TN AM
Utilities
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +27.9% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 22 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.045 2020-11-04 Pat Roberts R-KS NVDA
Semiconductors
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +19.4% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 22 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.045 2018-12-31 Thomas MacArthur R-NJ NXPI
Semiconductors
buy $15,001 – $50,000 +21.3% window_timing
This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 22 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.
0.050 2018-12-27 Steve Cohen D-TN CVS
Retail & Consumer
sell $15,001 – $50,000 +29.5% window_timing
This sale was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 20 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which.

A flag is a prompt to look, not a conclusion. Definitions: The Whistle and The Line. Method and every threshold: Methodology.