The Whistle
Trades whose timing was statistically unusual for that security — and which also sat against committee work the member was part of, a vote they cast, or a shutdown or lame-duck window.
What "unusual" means here, exactly. For each trade we ask a testable question: if this member had traded this same security on a random day instead, how often would they have done at least this well against the market over the next 90 trading days? Two hundred random dates are drawn from that security's own price history. The p-value is the share of them that did as well or better. A p-value of 0.02 means only 2% of random timings in that stock beat this one.
What it does not mean. It is not a probability of guilt, or of innocence. It does not measure intent, knowledge, or wrongdoing. Someone has to be in the top few percent — across tens of thousands of trades, unusual things happen constantly by chance alone. That is precisely why an unusual p-value on its own is not flagged here: a Whistle also requires a documented connection, and a size floor of $15,000 so token amounts do not generate noise.
Across 29,227 trades tested, 2,361 (8.1%) were unusual at the 0.05 level. Chance alone produces about 5%. The gap between those two numbers is the whole finding — and it is modest.
The published rules
| Rule | What it requires | Flags |
|---|---|---|
| huddle_timing | Unusually timed trade inside a committee window, p ≤ 0.05, at least $15,000 | 75 |
| window_timing | Unusually timed trade during a shutdown or lame-duck window, p ≤ 0.05, at least $15,000 | 48 |
| vote_timing | Unusually timed sale before a vote the member cast, p ≤ 0.05, at least $15,000 | 23 |
Every threshold is fixed and published — nothing here is tuned per member or per trade. The full definitions are on Methodology.
23 flagged trades.
| p-value | Trade date | Member | Ticker | Action | Amount (as filed) | Excess vs market | Rule | Records |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.000 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | TXN
Semiconductors |
sell | $100,001 – $250,000 | +18.0% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.000 | 2019-04-01 | Bill Flores R-TX | AM
Utilities |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +46.8% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.000 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | TTD
Software & IT Services |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +58.5% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.000 | 2025-05-08 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | UPS
Transportation |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +27.1% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.000 | 2025-04-17 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | UPS
Transportation |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +28.8% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.000 | 2025-03-27 | Greg Landsman D-OH | UNH
Insurance |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +63.9% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.000 | 2025-04-01 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. D-CA | GDDY
Software & IT Services |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +38.6% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.005 | 2025-03-19 | Sheri Biggs R-SC | PGR
Insurance |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +24.3% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.015 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | UNP
Transportation |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +17.8% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 67 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.020 | 2019-04-01 | Bill Flores R-TX | WMB
Utilities |
sell | $50,001 – $100,000 | +20.0% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 50 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.025 | 2019-05-07 | Bradley Scott Schneider D-IL | PTC
Software & IT Services |
sell | $50,001 – $100,000 | +28.0% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 40 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.025 | 2025-01-21 | Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. R-PA | GOOG
Software & IT Services |
sell | $50,001 – $100,000 | +11.4% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 40 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.035 | 2019-05-03 | Bradley Scott Schneider D-IL | PTC
Software & IT Services |
sell | $100,001 – $250,000 | +27.1% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 29 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.035 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | ADP
Software & IT Services |
sell | $50,001 – $100,000 | +19.2% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 29 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.035 | 2025-03-19 | Sheri Biggs R-SC | MRK
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +23.9% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 29 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.040 | 2019-03-08 | Susan A. Davis D-CA | EA
Software & IT Services |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +18.3% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 25 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.040 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | CHTR
Telecommunications |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +49.3% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 25 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.045 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | FTNT
Technology Hardware |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +32.0% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 22 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.045 | 2019-03-25 | Van Taylor R-TX | ABBV
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +21.0% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 22 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.050 | 2025-03-24 | George Whitesides D-CA | CB
Insurance |
sell | $100,001 – $250,000 | +16.6% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 20 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.050 | 2025-04-07 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | CRM
Software & IT Services |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +28.4% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 20 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.050 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | TDG
Defense & Aerospace |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +17.8% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 20 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.050 | 2025-05-12 | Jefferson Shreve R-IN | CRM
Software & IT Services |
sell | $15,001 – $50,000 | +28.7% | vote_timing | filing · context |
| This sale was flagged because they sold shortly before casting a vote on a related bill, and because only about 1 in 20 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
A flag is a prompt to look, not a conclusion. Definitions: The Whistle and The Line. Method and every threshold: Methodology.