The Whistle
Trades whose timing was statistically unusual for that security — and which also sat against committee work the member was part of, a vote they cast, or a shutdown or lame-duck window.
What "unusual" means here, exactly. For each trade we ask a testable question: if this member had traded this same security on a random day instead, how often would they have done at least this well against the market over the next 90 trading days? Two hundred random dates are drawn from that security's own price history. The p-value is the share of them that did as well or better. A p-value of 0.02 means only 2% of random timings in that stock beat this one.
What it does not mean. It is not a probability of guilt, or of innocence. It does not measure intent, knowledge, or wrongdoing. Someone has to be in the top few percent — across tens of thousands of trades, unusual things happen constantly by chance alone. That is precisely why an unusual p-value on its own is not flagged here: a Whistle also requires a documented connection, and a size floor of $15,000 so token amounts do not generate noise.
Across 29,227 trades tested, 2,361 (8.1%) were unusual at the 0.05 level. Chance alone produces about 5%. The gap between those two numbers is the whole finding — and it is modest.
The published rules
| Rule | What it requires | Flags |
|---|---|---|
| huddle_timing | Unusually timed trade inside a committee window, p ≤ 0.05, at least $15,000 | 75 |
| window_timing | Unusually timed trade during a shutdown or lame-duck window, p ≤ 0.05, at least $15,000 | 48 |
Every threshold is fixed and published — nothing here is tuned per member or per trade. The full definitions are on Methodology.
4 flagged trades.
| p-value | Trade date | Member | Ticker | Action | Amount (as filed) | Excess vs market | Rule | Records |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.005 | 2026-02-03 | Cleo Fields D-LA | AMD
Semiconductors |
buy | $50,001 – $100,000 | +103.4% | window_timing | filing · context |
| This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because fewer than 1 in 200 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.010 | 2026-02-03 | Cleo Fields D-LA | MU
Semiconductors |
buy | $100,001 – $250,000 | +126.3% | window_timing | filing · context |
| This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 100 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.015 | 2025-10-10 | Cleo Fields D-LA | GOOGL
Software & IT Services |
buy | $15,001 – $50,000 | +27.3% | window_timing | filing · context |
| This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 67 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
| 0.030 | 2025-10-10 | Cleo Fields D-LA | GOOG
Software & IT Services |
buy | $15,001 – $50,000 | +26.8% | window_timing | filing · context |
| This purchase was flagged because it happened during a government shutdown or a lame-duck session, and because only about 1 in 33 random days in this stock did as well. The timing worked out well against the market over the following three months. This could mean the timing was informed — or that it was luck, an adviser's routine, or a reaction to news that everybody had. Nothing here says which. | ||||||||
A flag is a prompt to look, not a conclusion. Definitions: The Whistle and The Line. Method and every threshold: Methodology.